thinkletter #60 - #polycrisis #Starstuff #Narrativechange #Desalination #Sorekb #Celeste on Mars #Unknownrisks #Pakistan #Africa #Waterstress #Egypt #wisdomcorner
November 28, 2024 - “The biggest threats to humanity stem from the global community’s inability to deal with them effectively : now what ?”
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Prosilience thinkletter #60
A periodic thinkletter to help you better understand and anticipate the global polycrisis, so you can adapt. Compiled by Christopher H. CORDEY, a futurist-maieutician, strategic facilitator, international speaker and founder of Futuratinow and prosilience. Partner at Yonders and board member at Swissfuture.
Thinkletter #60 - November 28, 2024
We are made of 90 % of star stuff.
Time is a strange companion. It stretches into the incomprehensible past and snaps us back to the urgency of the present. For our 60th Thinkletter, we’re taking you on a provocative journey—60 billion years back, to the cosmic dance of creation; 60 years ago, to the pivotal moments that shaped today’s global power dynamics; and 60 hours ago, a snapshot of the ticking world-stage crises. Through it all, we’ll explore the resources that bind us, divide us, and might just save us.
60 billion years ago: The birth of everything
The story begins not with nations, but with atoms. A cosmic bang, 13.8 billion years ago, forged hydrogen and helium—the elements that would become water, the essential resource that now fuels conflicts and defines civilizations. Fast forward billions of years, and Earth's molten rock gives way to mineral deposits, hydrocarbons, and rare earth metals—treasures buried beneath our feet.
Today, these ancient gifts are the currency of power: lithium for batteries, cobalt for tech empires, and oil for the geopolitical roulette. What if we’ve misunderstood the cosmic lesson? The resources we fight over are finite, but the ingenuity to transform them—or abandon them—is infinite. Will humanity learn to pivot before the reserves and the clock run dry?
60 years ago: 1964 - the year that echoes today
The Cold War was in full swing, and the geopolitical chessboard was being reset. Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, deepening America’s entanglement in Vietnam—a conflict that still haunts U.S. foreign policy playbooks. Across the Pacific, China detonated its first nuclear weapon, a moment that cemented its trajectory toward great-power status. In Europe, the Franco-German Treaty of Friendship was barely a year old, hinting at the eventual European Union, while Africa was deep in its decolonization phase, torn between liberation and new dependencies.
Fast forward: the United States, Russia and China now circle each other in a Neo Great Power Competition, Europe grapples with fractures, and Africa is still battling the specters of colonial exploitation—this time through debt traps, foreign influence and resource grabs. The echoes of 1964 ring loud: how do nations balance ambition with alliances, and liberation with lasting independence?
60 hours ago
The world doesn’t wait. In just the last 60 hours:
As we mark this milestone 60th Thinkletter, let’s commit to outmaneuvering the challenges of time, whether in geopolitics, geoeconomics, or the fragile web of life that binds us all.
With best regards.
PS 1 : We are on bluesky for the last … 6 minutes ;)
PS 2 : Are you ready to play the most complex game of our time? The Game of the Polycrisis (GOP) is OUT. This is our NEW serious game, where every decision ripples across interconnected systems. Cette expérience immersive est bien sûr aussi disponible en français.
The Strategic Pulse
The world is unraveling. Water wars loom, debt traps tighten, and alliances fracture as climate chaos redraws futures. Egypt teeters on the brink of possible collapse, its Nile lifeline choking under regional tensions. Meanwhile, humanity dreams big—”Cowboy Céleste” the cosmic cow eyes Martian pastures, a metaphor for our restless ambition. Yet, in chasing the stars, we often lose sight of what truly matters here on Earth. Our fixation on the inessential blinds us to the urgent and the real. The Nile is drying, but so is our gratitude for others, for the resources and stability we take for granted. Will we let distraction and denial lead us to ruin? Adaptation. Reorientation. Audacity. Gratitude…
How can the West rethink its role in a era of polycrisis increasingly shaped by Asia's resilience and innovation? In his "State of Asia Address 2024," at Zurich University, historian Adam Tooze delves into Asia's pivotal role in the unfolding polycrisis, from economic dominance and climate leadership to its contrasting mindset with Western insecurities. Tooze challenges outdated West narratives, urging the West to embrace Asia’s complexity and leadership. The path forward, he argues, lies not in geopolitical confrontation but in cooperation, recognizing Asia's centrality to solving global challenges. Will the West, or at least Europe, listen ?
Are you ready to play the most complex game of our time? Step into The Game of the Polycrisis (GOP), a NEW SERIOUS GAME, where every decision ripples across interconnected systems, and your ability to balance competing crises will determine the fate of nations, economies, and the planet itself. Navigate a maze of geopolitical rivalries, climate shocks, technological disruptions, and social upheavals—each move bringing new opportunities and unforeseen risks. Success demands collaboration, foresight, and strategy. Join me, alongside GOP co-creator Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT, PhD, CEO of proGective, for an immersive session. (Le jeu de la Polycrise est aussi disponible en français). Test your skills, sharpen your insights, and see if you can outmaneuver the chaos—or will the Polycrisis outplay you?
How can we combat the devastating link between armed conflict and food insecurity? A new report, "Food Insecurity in Armed Conflict and the Use of Siege-like Tactics" published lately by the Geneva Academy, uncovers the alarming impact of siege tactics on civilian suffering and global food security. It highlights the worsening trends of food insecurity in conflict zones, examines how international humanitarian law can address these challenges, and calls for enhanced global cooperation to protect vulnerable populations from famine and starvation.
Is desalination the solution to the world's water crisis—or just a business born of necessity ? With only 3% of the planet’s water supply being fresh, and much of it inaccessible, the global demand for desalination is skyrocketing. Once a niche solution, it has become a $20 billion market projected to double by 2032. Massive projects like Israel's $1.5 billion Sorek B plant, capable of transforming seawater into drinking water at unprecedented scales, exemplify this rapid growth. As the number of large desalination plants approaches 2,000 by 2028, the question remains: can this booming industry truly address global water scarcity, or is it simply a response to desperation?
Can we solve the water crisis before it disrupts every aspect of life on Earth?
The global water cycle is out of balance, with devastating consequences, claims as new report “The Economics of Water : Valuing the Hydrological Cycle as a Global Common Good” published by the Global Commission on Water Economics. By 2030, nearly half of the global population could be living in water-stressed areas. Today, over 1,000 children under five die daily from unsafe water, and no community is immune to the cascading effects—on health, food security, and economic stability. The crisis exposes the fragility of development and climate goals, making it clear: without urgent action to restore water stability, every Sustainable Development Goal will be at risk, along with the future of our planet. It’s time for a fundamental shift in how we value and manage water—for everyone, everywhere.How do we navigate the unknown risks of tomorrow’s technologies?
From the ethical dilemmas of AI-driven decision-making to the uncharted territories of quantum computing and nanotechnology, emerging technologies present both promise and peril. Solar geoengineering, for example, offers hope in combating climate change but risks sparking unintended consequences or geopolitical tensions. As decision-makers grapple with these complexities, the challenge lies in balancing innovation's potential benefits with the profound risks of venturing into the unknown. Are we ready to take control—or will the risks outpace our understanding?
Will Céleste's dream of grazing on Mars become reality ? Out in the field where the stars all glow. There's a cow named Céleste who wants to go. To a place where the red dust swirls and flies. Leaving behind her Earthly ties. In a silver shuttle with a moo like a song. She breaks the bonds where she belongs. To graze on craters and leap with glee. In a Martian pasture wild and free… Could our obsession with space colonization be a subconscious reaction to guilt over Earth’s destruction?
Can Egypt avoid a major water (and social) crisis while preserving regional peace? Egypt's near-total dependence on the Nile for its water resources (serving a population of 111 million) makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change and the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam. While Ethiopia aims to become an energy giant, Egypt fears a critical reduction in the Nile's flow, threatening its agriculture and economy. Amid escalating diplomatic tensions (Gaza, Israel, Sinai) and significant social risks, urgent solutions are required: agricultural modernization, diversification of water resources, and regional cooperation — all under the watchful (and controlling) eye of Egypt's omnipresent military, which remains dominant despite regime changes and investments from the UAE and Saudi Arabia…
African debt shock: after the IMF and World Bank, how will African economies be financed? For the GEAB (Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin), Africa’s challenges, from unsustainable debt to fractured alliances, are emblematic of the polycrisis, where cascading disruptions in finance, governance, and climate amplify instability. Yet, within this turmoil lies a paradoxical opportunity: isolation is pushing Africa toward self-reliance, regional integration, and innovation. As traditional support systems falter, the continent has a chance to redefine its trajectory in a multipolar world, leveraging its demographic and natural resources to create new alliances and financial models. The question remains: can Africa seize this moment to transform crisis into a blueprint for resilience and leadership in the 21st century?
The Explorimentator
If Céleste, the cosmic cow, symbolizes humanity’s ambitions, what does her journey to Mars reveal about our collective psychology?
Are Asia's resilience and innovation proving that Western governance models are outdated and unfit for a polycrisis world? Whereto ?
Could the potential collapse of Egypt, triggered by Nile conflicts, be the first domino in a global reshaping of power and geography?
The Wisdom Corner
“The biggest threats to humanity stem from the global community’s inability
to deal with them effectively” - Laszlo Szombatfalvy