thinkletter #58 - #polycrisis #thermodynamics #demodynamics #solarfood #foodthreatening #social entropy #Koshihikari #wisdomcorner
October 31, 2024 - “Being a citizen is a voluntary act"
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Prosilience thinkletter #58
A bimonthly thinkletter to help you better understand and anticipate the global polycrisis, so you can adapt. Compiled by Christopher H. CORDEY, a futurist-maieutician, strategic facilitator, international speaker and founder of Futuratinow and prosilience. Partner at Yonders and board member at Swissfuture.
Thinkletter #58 - October 31, 2024
Polycrisis, thermo and demodynamics: a systemic vision
The complexity of contemporary crises has led to the emergence of the concept of polycrisis, characterising a situation in which multiple and interconnected crises, such as the ecological, energy, economic and social crises, interact and reinforce each other. Unlike an isolated accumulation of problems, the polycrisis represents an integrated dynamic in which each crisis exacerbates the effects of the others, creating unprecedented systemic challenges for modern societies. In this context, understanding the mechanisms underlying these interactions becomes essential to anticipate and mitigate their impacts.
The principles of thermodynamics although traditionally applied to physical systems, offer a powerful analytical perspective for studying complex systems, including human societies. In particular, thermodynamics provides key concepts such as energy, entropy and diminishing returns, which help us to understand how crises can intensify when energy and material resources become limited or inefficiently distributed. In other words, a thermodynamic reading of contemporary crises highlights the tendency of complex systems to exhaustion and increasing disorder when under pressure, providing a useful framework for assessing the resilience of societies.
Demodynamics – or demographic dynamics - as coined for this thinkletter, also play a crucial role in the structure and resilience of social systems. Demographic changes, such as growth, ageing or depopulation, influence not only resource and energy requirements, but also the capacity of societies to cope with systemic crises. Trends such as the accelerated ageing of populations in some regions, migratory pressure or depopulation in others, are contributing to economic and social tensions, amplifying the effects of the polycrisis or, in some cases, offering opportunities to rebalance energy and society.
This Deeper Dive # 2 (for subscribers only) sets out to analyse the interactions between the polycrisis, thermo and demodynamics in order to provide a systemic understanding of contemporary challenges. By exploring the links between these three dimensions, our aim is to show how a transdisciplinary approach, integrating thermodynamics as a tool for analysing social systems and demography as a determining factor in resilience, can help us to better anticipate impacts and envisage ways of ensuring the sustainability of modern societies, or not.
How might adaptive governance evolve in response to continuous global migrations, and what new forms of governance structures could emerge to better handle fluctuating populations?
Read also two related articles published in the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin :
GEAB #173 : We are living through the last decade of the Oil Age
GEAB #188 : A shrinking world population: The need for new economic models to survive beyond 2050
Enjoy the journey.
With best regards.
PS : not to be missed (click below)